Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
